Given historical trends, Democrats should be panicking.
Just 11 days before Election Day, the RealClearPolitics average of polls is showing a tie between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Both candidates have 48.5% of the vote, according to the RCP average.
The average also shows Trump leading Harris in the battleground states.
The staff at RealClearPolitics selects polls they consider authoritative and calculates an average, which many use to get a general sense of election races.
A tie in the polling likely means an advantage for Trump since, as many have noted, historically the Republican underperforms in polling.
“If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win,” said CNN poll analyst Harry Enten in August, when Harris had a strong lead.
The average also shows Trump leading Harris in the battleground states 48.4% to 47.5%, respectively.
The RCP average has shown Harris in the lead since Aug. 4, while Trump was leading prior to that date by as much as 2 percentage points. In mid-September, Harris hit her highest lead, also about 2 percentage points.
Some immediately began trying to undermine the veracity of the RCP average after it showed a tie.
“Your daily reminder that RealClearPolitics is biased and distorted by including junk, partisan polls in its simple averages. Garbage in, garbage out,” replied Timothy McBride, a Washington University professor.
RCP also shows a slight lead for Democrats in the generic congressional campaign average, 47.2% to 47.1%..
