Political statistician expresses concern about Democrats running for Biden’s re-election

A political statistician suggested Monday that the Democratic Party should consider finding a new candidate for the White House in 2024 if President Joe Biden fails to run a “normal campaign,” becoming the latest analyst to express concerns about his chances of winning a choice. second period.

Nate Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of data-focused outlet FiveThirtyEight, expressed doubt in his Substack Bulletin on Biden’s ability to win another term in Washington DC, noting that the president’s approval ratings continue to rise to sink to their lowest figures ever seen.

But convincing Biden to pass the torch to a new candidate or go all-in on a re-election campaign could prove difficult in either case, according to Silver, whose presidential election predictions have earned him recognition over the past two decades.

“Democrats would take a big risk by replacing Biden, but they also take a big risk by nominating him,” Silver wrote.

“If Biden can’t keep up with a typical sitting president running for re-election, or is prone to making mistakes when he does, voters and the media will notice that and Biden will use his 80-plus years as a an albatross around his neck,” he later added.

Silver launched FiveThirtyEight, a blogging and data aggregation site named after the number of presidential electors in the Electoral College, in 2008. He then accurately predicted the outcome of 49 of 50 states in the presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain. .

He later sold the site that would eventually become part of the Disney umbrella. He continued to publish statistics until his contract expired earlier this year and he left the data-driven media outlet when broader layoffs at Disney hit ABC News.

But Silver has stayed in the game and has previously expressed concerns about Biden’s political future. suggestion The president should have announced that he would not seek re-election earlier this year.

“If the options are for Biden to run a reasonably normal campaign or for a mystery Democrat to do the same, I think it’s close,” Silver said. “But if it’s Biden running a Rose Garden campaign versus a different Democrat running a normal campaign, I’ll take my chances with the alternative, and Biden can join James K. Polk on the list of historically well-regarded presidents who don’t they did it. seek a second term.”

Democrats have been in panic mode as former President Donald Trump, the leading Republican contender for the 2024 primary, recently led Biden in vital swing states.

Last week, Trump led Biden by 46% to 44.6% in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, and the four most recent polls taken into account by RCP gave Trump the lead.

The former president’s 1.4-point lead is the largest over Biden since late September, when he was ahead by an average of 1.6 points. Trump has led or been tied with Biden in the national RCP polling average for nearly two straight months as the president struggles with low approval ratings and multiple global and domestic crises.

A New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week caught the attention of some Democrats who expressed concern about the former Republican president’s performance against Biden in critical battleground states. According to the poll, Trump led Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Connecticut Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal said Trump’s lead in polls in battleground states after numerous federal and state charges were levied against the former president left him “bewildered, perplexed, bewildered and, frankly, a little angry.” because people can give [Trump] credibility.”

Former Obama adviser and Democratic strategist David Axelrod appeared to lack optimism about a Biden re-election campaign.

“What’s at stake here is a miscalculation too dramatic to ignore,” Axelrod wrote in X. “If he continues to run, he will be the Democratic Party’s nominee. What you need to decide is whether that is wise; Is it best for HIM or for the country?

But Biden and his campaign reportedly dismissed polls from left-wing media.

Zach Jewell contributed to this report.