Pence stuck his head up this week to take a whack at Trump and his Supporters

Mike Pence stuck his head up this week to take a whack at Trumpism, urging Republicans to reject “protectionist tariffs” and “isolationism” while “unashamedly” recommitting to anti-abortion positions.

It’s a sign of what he’s up to behind the scenes as well.

The former vice president is laying the groundwork for a party that could move on after the election from Donald Trump’s populism and protectionism. Sometimes that means being a rare voice of public dissent, at other times it means quietly trying to recruit allies to his cause who might be more willing to join him on specific policy or political fights.

“We’re trying to plant a flag for conservatism and believe that many of our traditional conservative groups have become far more enamored with populism these days and walked away from those principles,” Marc Short, Pence’s longtime advisor, told Semafor.

The former vice president’s Wall Street Journal op-ed taking veiled shots at Trump’s policy priorities is just a hint of what Pence is thinking as he waits for the 2024 election to play out. But the big question for Pence is: Is there still a place for him in today’s GOP?

The answer isn’t even clear to his fans: Pence doesn’t fit into “the Republican party of today,” said Utah Republican Sen. Mitt Romney. “The Republican Party of tomorrow may be a different matter.”

After incurring Donald Trump’s wrath for certifying the 2020 election, Pence’s platform of traditional conservatism failed to move GOP voters in his presidential campaign. Yet the former vice president, governor, and member of House leadership — who was key to helping expand Trump’s coalition in 2016 — remains concerned about the direction of the party, and he’s been making moves to cultivate like-minded supporters.

Pence faces a tough road back: He doesn’t have the same rabid fan base as other leaders in the party — his presidential run confirmed that. As Trump-aligned Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley put it: “If you run for president and lose, it’s hard to maintain influence.”

Pence also faces criticism from Trump allies for being “disloyal” to the former president. But he does have long standing relationships with lawmakers on the Hill and activists across the country, and is well-respected, albeit quietly at times, among a solid faction of the party.

He’s leaning into that, and trying, with the help of his group Advancing American Freedom (AAF), to be the GOP’s “conscience” of sorts, as the organization’s president Tim Chapman put it. It’s welcome news for the coterie of Republicans who, like Pence, find themselves on the outside of the party’s populist bent.

“There’s room for his voice and the voices of others, for this reason: Our party is, at this point, mostly a political coalition in search of a clear policy agenda,” said Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, a Republican who has not endorsed Trump. “At some point we’re going to have to gravitate around a clear policy agenda … And Mike Pence is very well equipped to do that.”

Pence and AAF weighed in on various issues this year — most notably abortion and the SALT deduction, the latter of which Trump vowed to reverse (after it passed during his first administration) just last week. Pence is also reaching out to his party’s more hawkish and interventionist wing, while harmonizing with free traders and criticizing tariffs, which are Trump’s top economic priority.

His group has spent $10 million on defending the party’s 2017 tax cuts, and is also in the midst of hosting sessions for staffers on the Hill about the expiring tax cuts. They’ve engaged in support for Ukraine, anti-abortion legislation, and the bill intended to force a TikTok sale or ban. Pence personally meets often with lawmakers and texts with them on AAF priorities. The group distributes policy memos around the hill, holds off the record events, and generally tries to maintain a visible presence.

“Over the last year or so you’ve definitely seen more members and staff taking note of what AAF is putting out there as they call balls and strikes on policy,” one former GOP leadership aide told Semafor.

Pence’s team believes there’s still a lane for his style of conservatism, even as they acknowledge questions about his continued relevance. Short argued that there’s been an increased “appetite among supporters” who are concerned about the direction of the party. Chapman maintained that “there are a lot of lawmakers who still would describe themselves behind closed doors as traditional Reagan Republicans.”

“Pence and their organization have done a good job of focusing on the issues and not being antagonistic to President Trump,” one senior Republican staffer said, adding that they’ve spent time on the Hill highlighting areas, like tax cuts, where there’s agreement with Trump. “There are a lot of people here who maybe don’t agree with the president on all policy matters and might align more with the vice president. And then there’s vice versa.”

Despite Pence and AAF being at odds with many of Trump’s current positions, Short said he wouldn’t describe their effort as “non-MAGA.” Instead, Pence would be willing to work with Trump on policy topics where there is agreement. Still, the dynamics between Trump and Pence could spark party infighting next year if Trump wins and Pence challenges the former president’s priorities. Chapman made clear that their mission would be to keep “Republicans accountable to a set of principles” regardless of who wins the White House, even if it meant conflict.

Pence is also keeping strong Indiana ties, meeting with Republican Sen. Mike Braun this summer to discuss his gubernatorial campaign. They evaded discussing Pence’s refusal to endorse Trump this cycle, Braun said: “I felt that was not for me to weigh in on.”

“It’s a difficult spot because of the crossfire he was within. And I think at some point, we’ll get back to true conservative principles … once we get past the moment in time that looks chaotic politically,” Braun told Semafor. “We’re a party that avoids policy.”

Pence’s best opportunity to redirect his party is if Trump loses. There’s pent-up angst over the party’s policy direction on foreign and economic policy, and lots of social conservatives who are closer to Pence on issues like abortion than they are to Trump. So if Republicans are picking up the pieces in mid-November, it seems likely Pence will be one of the voices involved.

It’s harder to see where Pence and his group will go if Trump wins — and Pence’s non-endorsement of Trump doesn’t help in that scenario. It’s also hard to see Pence holding elected office again, though there are plenty of opportunities for him to influence policy through his group and in the press.

While these challenges are real, at minimum he’s engendered goodwill around Washington from his time on Capitol Hill and the Trump presidency. “Mike Pence is a good man and I definitely think he has a place in the party,” Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana said. “I’m not going to second-guess anybody’s endorsement.”