“Bring them home” has been the slogan of the hostage families in Israel since October 7, 2023.
But when Hamas murdered 1,200 people, including 46 Americans, and when they took 254 people hostage, including 12 Americans, there should have been a different slogan: “Give them back. Now.”
Since that day so many opportunities have been missed.
On October 8th, Joe Biden could have called up the governments in Qatar, Iran and other rogue states and told them to get their friends in Hamas to hand over the hostages now.
Or else.
With the leverage the US has in the Middle East, a hardball approach against the Qataris, Iranians and Turks could have solved this mess 15 months ago.
Instead it has taken the pressure of the incoming Trump administration to get a deal agreed.
It is still a bitter-sweet moment.
On the one hand, everyone except Hamas and their goons in the West must feel their hearts lift at the idea of the remaining hostages being released.
These are men, women and babies who did nothing wrong but have spent 15 months in the hell of Hamas captivity.
On the other hand, the deal includes the release of Palestinian prisoners, including murderers.
In the first round of releases, nine ill and wounded hostages will be exchanged for 110 Palestinian prisoners who are serving life sentences.
Just think about that.
An Israeli baby could be released in exchange for a dozen grown murderers.
This is very difficult for the Israeli public to stomach, not least because the last time a similar deal was done, Israel released Yahya Sinwar who went on to mastermind October 7th.
Joe Biden has tried to make matters worse by claiming this deal is exactly the same as one he had put in place last May.
What he misses is the work that the IDF has managed to do in the last eight months.
That includes the decimation of Hamas in Gaza.
Had there been a ceasefire and exchange of hostages last May, the IDF would not have been able to proceed through Gaza, catch and kill Sinwar and reduce Hamas to the rump it currently is.
These months were not wasted.
But the real test for the Trump team is what comes in round two of the deal.
It apparently amazes some people that Hamas are not a reliable negotiating partner.
While the terror-group may abide by this first round of the deal, the idea that they will stick with the next rounds seems remote.
In their sick and twisted way, the leadership of Hamas know that having even the bodies of Israeli and American hostages is one of the only ways that they can stay alive.
What Israel has agreed to is only a cessation of hostilities, not the end of the war.
Which is as it should be.
As I have said here before, there is no point in putting out 90% of a fire.
You have to put out the whole thing.
So it is with Hamas.
You have to destroy the whole thing, and make sure that they can never retake control of Gaza.
Like the Nazis, Hamas and their ideology need to be destroyed utterly.
They need to lose and to know they´ve lost.
To that end, the Israelis are rightly going to continue their presence at the Philadelphi corridor – the strip of land where Egypt borders Gaza.
If the IDF did not stay there, then from Day One the terrorist group and its allies across the region will start rearming Gaza via the Egyptian tunnels.
The test now is how the incoming Trump administration can reassure the Israelis that despite the hideous parts of this deal America will have its back in the next stages.
There are several things Team Trump could do.
One is to stop the hold-up of certain weapons and weapon components that the Biden administration halted in order to pressure the Israelis to a deal.
But the second and more important one is for the Trump administration to do what the Biden administration failed to.
Which is to put pressure not on America´s closest ally in the region, but on America´s foes.
First among these is the revolutionary government in Iran.
The single biggest aim of American policy in the region must be to prevent the Ayatollahs from ever gaining nuclear weapons.
Tehran is still pushing, but if Trump can reassure the Israelis that if they have to act to prevent Iran going nuclear then they will have American backing that would help sweeten the deal.
The second part is harder.
Which is to deal with the governments of Turkey and – even more importantly – Qatar.
Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, this week told Fox News that “God´s work” was being done around the negotiating table in Doha.
According to him this work was being done by – among others – the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed.
With all due respect to Witkoff in his delicate task, that is flat-out wrong.
If someone funds the people who have attacked your citizens and taken them hostage and then 15 months later helps to release some of them that is not “God´s work.”
It is the work of the devil.
At the very least it is the work of a snake.
Qatar´s funding and hosting of Hamas and of the Muslim Brotherhood is something that in the years to come will look as terrible as Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the ideology that spawned 9/11.
As will the way in which Qatar has been allowed not just to fund America´s enemies, but to subvert American institutions (not least American universities) through their money spigots.
Unfortunately Iran, Qatar and Turkey have spent years out-maneuvering America and the West.
If this deal is going to hold it will need all of America´s might to lean on the powers in the region which backed Hamas and undermined Israel.
Trump´s policy of “peace through strength” will stand or fall on that junction.
We must hope it holds.
