SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — A new KELOLAND Media Group/Emerson College poll has a new leader in the Republican primary race for South Dakota governor.
Businessman Toby Doeden now holds a 3% advantage over second-place U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson. Doeden has 26% of the polled voters to Johnson’s 23%. The two switched places from the poll released on March 11 when Johnson had the lead with 28% followed by Doeden with 18%.
In this latest poll, Gov. Larry Rhoden was at 19% followed by state Rep. Jon Hansen with 16%. These are gains from the Rhoden’s 17% in March and Hansen’s 14% in March.
Of the sampled 452 registered Republican voters, 432 answered they were likely (either very likely or somewhat likely) to vote in the June 2 primary election.
The poll was conducted May 18-19 by Emerson College and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.2% which means a percentage applied to an answer could be 3.2 points higher or lower.
The sample of likely Republican primary voters has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.7%. Spencer Kimball of Emerson said in a KELOLAND interview on Thursday that 4.7% or 5% applies to each candidate in terms of a higher or lower percentage. It’s called a credibility interval because the survey was of an online panel which is more specific and a smaller group of individuals. It should be applied the same way as a margin of error.
“This is very close race,” Kimball said of the GOP primary.
In total, the poll surveyed 875 total voters: 452 Republicans (51.7%), 221 Independents (25.3%) and 201 Democrats (23%) and 79% (78.7%) indicated they were very likely to vote. Only registered Republican voters can vote on the Republican Primary races on June 2.
The method of the poll was 481 via a mobile phone, 260 for opt-in mobile and 143 online panel. According to Emerson College Polling, likely voters “receive multimedia text messages with a custom graphic inviting them to take the survey online.”
According to the latest voter registration data from the South Dakota Secretary of State, there are currently 321,677 registered Republican voters in the state. Turnout for past primary elections has been between 30% and 20% (17% in 2024, 32% in 2022, 26% in 2018, 19% in 2014 and 28% in 2008).
Runoff election likely
If the percentage of very likely voters in this May poll holds on Election Day, there will be a run-off race for the Republican nominee as none of the four candidates will reach the required 35% of the votes to win.
South Dakota requires the top-finishing candidate for governor in a primary receive at least 35% of the vote to be declared the nominee if there were three or more candidates in the primary. If one candidate does not receive 35%, a runoff election is required eight weeks from the date of the primary election. The top two finishers from the primary would be in the runoff.
Rhoden’s numbers seem to reflect how likely voters view his job performance. Twenty-six percent of respondents approved of Rhoden’s job as governor while 39% disapproved and 35.5% were neutral or had no opinion.
Johnson has a disapproval rate of 55% as only 24.5% approve of the job he is doing.
