An extensive survey of voters in the “bellwether” Pennsylvania counties that could determine who wins the state found that former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris and is favored on the issues they say are most important to them, according to results released by Cygnal exclusively to The Daily Wire.
The two counties, Erie and Northampton, have voted with the winning side in every election since 2008 — they sided with President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania is considered one of the most important battleground states in the 2024 election with most polls showing a statistical tie between Trump and Harris.
Trump is ahead in the swing districts by just one percent, 49 to 48, according to the Cygnal survey.
“In a reversal from 2020, Pennsylvania’s ‘Bellwether Counties’ have narrowly swung back to Donald Trump,” the pollster wrote, determining that the former president is winning over traditional Democrat voters that view Harris as too radical. “As Democrats have a 4-point party registration advantage in these counties, this is further evidence of these ancestral Democrats increasingly leaving the party of their forefathers.”
As with the rest of the country, the economy and immigration are at the top of mind for bellwether voters, with 31% listing inflation and the economy as their top issue, and 24% saying the biggest issue is immigration and border security.
Former President Trump holds a 6-point lead on the economy (52-46) and a significant 15-point lead (56-41) on immigration. He’s also ahead by 6% on crime (52-46), while Harris holds a 14% advantage on abortion (53-39), though fewer than one in five bellwether voters share her position that it should be legal up until birth.
The poll found that the key for Harris is presenting herself as a moderate — only two-in-ten voters characterized Harris as a moderate, and she won the support of nearly all of them, 95%.
“This underscores the need of the Trump campaign to triple-down on defining Harris as the far-left, radical San Francisco Liberal she is,” Cygnal writes in its report. “50% of voters currently say Harris’s political ideology and beliefs are very liberal and Trump wins 87% of these voters.”
According to the new poll, half of likely voters in Pennsylvania approve of Trump’s performance in the White House, while just 39% approve of the Biden-Harris administration.
In addition to leading in a hypothetical head-to-head, the former president also boasts a higher job approval, more trust on the issues, and a more favorable image. Even more alarming for the Harris campaign are the vice president’s and Democratic Party’s net favorability ratings (-8 and -13, respectively). Donald Trump and the Republican Party each have net favorability ratings of -4.
Polling from Cygnal indicates that Donald Trump has further solidified his support among working-class voters. He holds a 16% lead among union households and a 13% advantage with voters earning less than $100,000 a year.
While Harris holds a 27-point lead with college-educated bellwether voters, Trump is ahead by 20 points among those without a college degree.
Harris also outperforms Trump with wealthier households — she’s up by 18 points among those earning over six figures — and women under 55 — a group she carries by 25 points.
In addition to a wide education and wealth gap, the poll also shows a stark divide along gender lines. Harris leads by 25% with women, while Trump is ahead by 29% among men.
According to the new polling, the decision to pass over Shapiro could prove costly in Pennsylvania. Before selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Harris was considering Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, but was reportedly concerned that the Jewish governor’s stance on Israel was at odds with her party’s base.
Among bellwether voters in the state, Shapiro has a plus-14-point favorability rating, while Walz sits at plus-2. And more importantly, in a hypothetical Trump/Vance — Harris/Shapiro head-to-head, the Democrats are ahead by one point (48-47).
