(The Hill)-President Trump is headed back to Texas on Wednesday for his third visit in a month as Republican Ken Paxton trails Democrat James Talarico in a battleground Senate race.
It’s the latest in Trump’s blitz through red states to rev up Republican voters as many key midterm forecasts shift in Democrats’ favor, and it’s his latest move to put the national spotlight on the Lone Star State. He spoke at the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) “Trump-a-palooza” rally in Dallas last month and rallied voters while visiting a motor plant in Denton last week.
Though Democrats have struggled for decades to win statewide in the red stronghold, Republicans are on defense amid Trump’s poor approval numbers and voter frustration with the economy, the war in Iran and immigration, as well as Paxton’s past controversies.
Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is expected to speak at the San Antonio rally, which he hopes will “keep Texas red and keep America first,” as is Republican House hopeful Carlos De La Cruz, who’s locked in a tight race against Democrat Johnny Garcia in the 35th District.
“Republicans are worried. They need Trump to elevate Republican turnout, and it’s clear that Paxton on his own can’t do it,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.
“We’re not used to seeing this many visits from our president, and I think that the upshot is that it’s a real warning sign for Republicans.”
Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) latest polling averages show Talarico roughly 3 percentage points ahead of Paxton, based on recent surveys showing a race that’s within the margins of error. Vote Hub on Monday moved the race from a “tilt D” rating to an even more favorable “lean D” label for Democrats.
Cook Political Report shifted the Talarico-Paxton race away from Republicans to a “toss-up” rating in August. DDHQ also considers it a coin flip but narrowly favors Democrats, giving Talarico a 56 percent probability of flipping the seat.
The close numbers have already made it the most expensive Senate race of the cycle — but with Paxton still trailing as Election Day nears, more funds are flooding in on both sides of the aisle.
President Trump’s MAGA Inc. dropped $10 million into the race in early September. Tech mogul Elon Musk’s super PAC has spent more than $6 million for Paxton in recent weeks, according to the San Antonio Current. And Texas PAC, affiliated with the GOP Senate Leadership Fund, spent a whopping $131 million for Paxton, per Axios.
On the Democratic side, top groups aren’t yet spending big in the state, but the party’s Senate campaign super PAC was preparing last week to make an initial investment in the Texas race for the upper chamber. And Talarico has brought in big hauls, with a staggering $30 million raised in the second quarter against Paxton’s $9 million that period.
Paxton brought in $18 million in the third quarter of the year, his campaign shared Monday, and Talarico has yet to release his third-quarter numbers.
“This is a very close and super tight race. So the smallest things are going to make a difference,” Texas GOP consultant Vinny Minchillo said.
“This is a turnout election, and has been from the very beginning. And bringing the president in is going to rally the faithful — that’s the plan — and to make sure that people get out and turn out for the whole Republican ticket, and certainly for Ken Paxton.”
Last month, Trump used the RNC’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas as a platform to boost Paxton on his home turf. Trump quipped to the convention crowd that he doesn’t “like the way Ken dresses,” “talks” or “looks,” but he argued the Republican is “the greatest” attorney general in the country.
Paxton, however, has struggled to catch up to Talarico — and he said as much in leaked audio shared by The New York Times last week.
“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good,” Paxton said in the clip, though a Paxton adviser later called The Times reporting “manipulated nonsense.”
In his Denton stop last week, Trump quipped that Paxton was “a pain in the a‑‑” and “a little controversial.”
“I think that’s a colorful way to say, ‘Hey, the guy’s got baggage,’ which is no secret … but you know, ‘He’s our guy and you need to support him,’” Minchillo said of the president’s Paxton pitch.
Paxton, who defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) for the party nod with the help of Trump’s eleventh-hour endorsement, was a controversial Senate pick for the party. As the state’s top attorney, he faced criticism of politicizing the office and weathered an unsuccessful 2023 impeachment on corruption charges. His wife of nearly four decades filed for divorce last year on “biblical grounds.”
But Trump, too, is unpopular — making his red-state stops a “catch-22” for Republican candidates, Rottinghaus said.
“Obviously, he’s supported among core Republicans who the GOP needs to turn out, but he’s also toxic among many in the Democratic field and among swing voters. So there’s a kind of trade-off there for Republicans when it comes down to it,” Rottinghaus said of Trump.
And the Senate race isn’t the only marquee fight in Texas.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is not expected to attend the rally due to scheduling conflicts as he battles Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who has made her own gains in recent polls of the red-leaning race.
Trump is also using the San Antonio rally to support De La Cruz, the brother of Texas Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R), in an open race against Garcia for a seat reshaped by GOP-friendly redistricting. It’s one of four Texas House contests that Cook Political Report considers highly competitive.
But Republicans may ultimately gain nothing at the national level from redistricting, according to a recent DDHQ analysis — and though they hoped to win five more seats in Texas, experts say they may snag only two or three.
That’s driven in part by a shift among Latino voters, who represent roughly a third of the state’s eligible voters. The bloc turned to Trump in 2024 but now appears increasingly frustrated with the president’s handling of the economy and immigration.
“Democrats are in the best position they’ve been in for at least a decade,” Rottinghaus said of the Lone Star State landscape. “And they need to take advantage of this.”
