The first gubernatorial debate was held last night, and from the outset I’ve believed this race would come down to Larry Rhoden and Dusty Johnson. After watching the debate, I’ve adjusted that view—slightly.
I still see Larry Rhoden as the frontrunner, largely by virtue of incumbency. Overall, he delivered a solid performance. That said, he occasionally seemed unsure on his feet, and in light of recent news involving his former boss, Kristi Noem, it may be time for him to distance himself and talk about his leadership independently.
Dusty Johnson, meanwhile, came across as he often does—knowledgeable, but somewhat unlikable. His biggest challenge remains his relationship with Donald Trump. He had an opportunity during the debate to take a clear position but instead defaulted to a familiar RINO Washington-style sidestep. His most notable misstep, however, came when a KELO moderator asked him to assign a grade to Noem’s performance as governor. Johnson refused, chastising the moderator and suggesting the question was beneath him. It was an odd moment—declining to offer a simple grade while projecting a tone that risked coming off as aloof.
Jon Hansen may have been the evening’s biggest surprise. He presented as articulate and composed, and he directly answered the Noem question by assigning a grade of “C,” in contrast to Johnson’s refusal. The grade of C is pretty accurate. Despite being the youngest candidate, Hansen at times projected a low-energy presence. It’s unclear whether he has the momentum to go the distance, but he could emerge as a dark horse—especially in a close primary where a runoff scenario becomes possible.
Then there’s Toby Doeden. He leans heavily into his business credentials, frequently touting the thousands of jobs he claims to have brought to South Dakota—figures that invite closer scrutiny. His speaking style can feel overly rehearsed, and his attempts to draw comparisons to Donald Trump may be a stretch. If anything, the comparison feels like comparing a hamburger to a steak.
It’s still early, but for now, Rhoden maintains the lead. Hansen appears to be gaining ground and could soon challenge Johnson for a stronger position in the race.
