Hate to say I told you so, but… I told you so. Toby Doeden won the Republican gubernatorial primary last night. I also predicted the race would go to a runoff, and it will.
Granted, I initially thought the runoff would be between Doeden and Dusty Johnson. Turns out I was right about Dusty’s high negative ratings—even more so than I anticipated. Instead, the runoff will be between Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden.
Larry was actually my first pick for governor. I told him as much last fall during a meeting in Sioux Falls. I met his press secretary, Josie Harms, at the time, and we exchanged numbers. A few months later, I ran into her at KELO-TV and she didn’t remember me. I found that strange; I’m kind of hard to forget! That was my first indicator that maybe the Noem camp had warned her about me.
A Doeden-Johnson race would have been an easier path to victory for Toby because so many people dislike Dusty. Now, it’s Toby against the Pierre establishment. The Johnson and Rhoden camps will do everything they can to keep an outsider out of the capital. The “six degrees of separation” between Dusty Johnson, Dennis Daugaard, and Tony Venhuizen (Rhoden’s running mate) is nearly unbelievable, but entirely true.
The Pierre establishment and the good old boys’ club will stop at nothing to tarnish Toby’s name. Furthermore, if you combine the votes for Johnson, Rhoden, and Hansen, there are enough establishment votes to keep Doeden in Aberdeen selling cars.
Doeden’s only hope now is a strong Lieutenant Governor pick. He needs someone with major name recognition and a loyal following—not just a safe, lame-duck choice. Pierre’s need for a shake-up is 50 years in the making; we haven’t seen true change in the capital since Dick Kniep. Toby is the one who can pull it off, but this runoff is going to get incredibly dirty, and people are going to get their feelings hurt
